If you plan on playing the Kentucky Derby this year expect to get paid. I am projecting the favorite (more than likely Bodemeister/Union Rags) at post time to be no less than 4-1. Rain could be a factor (seems like it is every year) affecting track conditions. There is a ton of speed in this year’s race so look for someone rating or closing off the pace. The trouble is the same for these types of closing horses as the trip and early pace dictates if the horse even has a chance to win. I think it is perfect for this year for one of them to win.

I will also post: 2012 Kentucky Derby Contenders, Odds, Post Positions, Picks, Predictions, Results, Payouts, Post Time, Video, Winner

1. DADDY LONG LEGS; Colm O’Donoghue; Aidan O’Brien
Finished a terrible 12th in last year’s Breeders’ Cup juvenile, which has proven out to be one of the best Juvenile races of all-time. Ships to Dubai to run on the Meydan course and finishes first for its only race and win of 2012. Now ships to Kentucky for the Derby. My personal belief is I never play a horse shipping from Europe/Dubai/Japan/Wherever without and prep races in the States before the Derby. And with the 1 post I am completely throwing out

2. OPTIMIZER; Jon Court; D.Wayne Lukas
Just got in with enough earnings, but no wins on the year I am not touching this horse. Last win was in 2011 in a Maiden Special Weight race. Too bad as I love Court on longshots when riding anywhere in Kentucky.

3. TAKE CHARGE INDY; Calvin Borel; Patrick Byrne
This horse will take money for sure on Saturday. Just Borel on him is enough to cut the morning line odds of 15-1 down to 7-1. The horse has raced with the best of them in this field and should be a factor to finish 4th.

4. UNION RAGS; Michael Matz; Julien Leparoux
Could be your post time co-favorite with Bodemeister. This was one of the most anticipated 2-year olds in the Juvenile last year. He was even money and made tried his hardest to get by speedball Hansen. Couldn’t. Similar things happened in the Florida Derby. I want to like this horse, but I can’t right now.

5. DULLAHAN; Kent Desormeaux; Dale Romans
Will be one of the horses coming from way back in the stretch. That could suit him well if the speed scenario develops as I am guessing it will. Closed and beat Hansen in the Toyota Blue Grass, but Hansen is another one of those speed horses. Not sure on how much he likes dirt, but we will learning Saturday. Will try for 1st as I am sucker for closers, but this year it makes sense.

6. BODEMEISTER; Mike Smith; Bob Baffert
Won by 9.5 lengths in the Arkansas Derby. Yes I said 9.5 lengths! Like stated above will more than likely be the post time favorite among this bunch. I hate playing any sort of chalk in derby no matter how high or low you get it at. Never seems tor materialize into a horse wearing the roses. That being said Smith/Bafferrt is a deadly combo and this horse should be ready come Saturday…maybe too ready if that is possible. He never raced as a 2-year old and guess when the last time a horse won the Kentucky Derby that did that? 1882, yikes. So not racing as a 2-year old and having raced 4 times in 2012 already might be too much with other more seasoned horses. This horse will be a factor later this year and even more so when he is 4-years old. Not in the top 8 for me.

7. ROUSING SERMON; Jose Lezcano; Jerry Hollendorfer
Another horse with no wins in 2012, but ran on late for a nice 3rd in the Louisiana Derby. This is another closing type horse which will need a lot to go his way. I just feel this one will be too far out of it to make a closing kick like others in this race. Tossing out.

8. CREATIVE CAUSE; Joel Rosario; Mike Harrington
Seems to be a wise-guy horse that a lot will be using come Saturday. Seems to be right there ready to pounce at the quarter pole which is a great pace to be for the KD. For me I personally don’t like California horses. Even with Santa Anita back using dirt, I never see California horses consistently preforming well in the Derby. This is a hard decision on this one. Will use in bottom levels of exotics, but not in the top 4.

9. TRINNIBERG; Willie Martinez; Bisnath Parboo
This horse might be ahead by 10 lengths by the end of the first quarter. Total speedball that will not be able to help himself. Will fish last in the KD. Easiest throw out of all 20.

10. DADDY NOSE BEST; Garret Gomez; Steve Asmussen
Julian has rode the horse the last 8 times, but jumps ship to ride Union Rag. Wow its last two races narrowly

11. ALPHA; Rajiv Maragh; Kiaran McLaughlin
Had traffic issues in the Wood memorial finishing second to Gemologist. Son of Bernadini, granddaddy of A.P. Indy so that bloodline is solid. Sheikh from Godolphin Stables has never won the Derby. Don’t think he gets it done this year. Depending on how the horse looks on the track might throw in a few exotics if the price is right.

12. PROSPECTIVE; Luis Contreras; Mark Casse
If this horse does anything it will be far too close to the lead to sustain any drive in the end. Don’t think this horse can hang at all with these big boys. Instant toss for me.

13. WENT THE DAY WELL; John Velazquez; Graham Motion
Same connections as last year’s Derby winner Animal Kingdom. Graham Motion is taking Went the Day Well on the same path he did last year Animal Kingdom. Winning the Vinery at Turfway and directly to the Derby. I have some questions on class even with that big win by 3.5 length last time out. Will use in exotics and place 3rd.

14. HANSEN; Ramon Dominguez; Mike Maker
Speed, speed, speed, speed. With so much of it in the race how can you bet any of them? Surely the early fractions are going to be vicious with Trinniberg, Bodemeister and others. Don’t think Hansen is ready for this longer distance. When you see this ghost white horse on the track it is going to impress the $1 bettors for sure. Don’t be fooled and stay away on Saturday.

15. GEMOLOGIST; Javier Castellano; Todd Pletcher
Only undefeated horse in the race….only good horse he beat was Alpha. Looking at the times in that race show it wasn’t a very good win. People will be betting this horse because in the PP’s they see five 1’s. Look elsewhere.

16. EL PADRINO; Rafael Bejarno; Todd Pletcher
Everyone loved this horse and then had a pretty weak Florida Derby. Losing to Take Charge Indy and Union Rags. I feel this horse is going to be able to get a good spot and stay close to the pace, but not be wasted on it. Look for this horse down the stretch at a very nice price. Will be playing 2nd.

17. DONE TALKING; Sheldon Russell; Hamilton Smith
Man if a name can save me time handicapping this race it is this one. Nothing to talk about here. Mute this horse.

18. SABERCAT; Corey Nakatani; Steve Asmussen
These outside posts really are terrible in the Derby. Especially when ou have zero speed to get out to the lead. Don’t let this cat in the house.

19. I’LL HAVE ANOTHER; Mario Gutierrez; Doug O’Neill
You know how I feel about California horses right? Nothing to see here, go “have another” before the race even starts.

20. LIAISON; Martin Garcia; Bob Baffert
20 hole? The only thing this horse will win is a maybe a free beer from one of the fans only about 10 feet away from the gate. No thanks.

In the end the best horses in this years Derby have the best post position possibly. All though no one horse steps up a clear easy bet, I would focus betting on post positions 3-16 only. So that knocks out 6 horses right off the bat that hove absolutely no chance of winning. My bets below:

WPS: #5
Ex Box: 5-16-13-3
Trifecta box: 5-16-13-3

If anyone cares Nehro will win the Belmont Stakes today. Play the 6 / 3,4,12 / 3,4,12 / 3,4,12 Superfecta.

517 Oklahoma City +7

514 Oklahoma City -4

512 MIAMI HEAT -4

OK I was somewhat close on the Kentucky Derby. Had the trifecta so that was nice. Lets do the same in smaller 14 horse field with the Preakness Stakes at Pimlico Race Course. I will also post: 2011 Preakness Stakes Contenders, Odds, Post Positions, Picks, Predictions, Results, Payouts, Post Time, Video, Winner

Link to Free PP’s:

http://www1.drf.com/tc/preakness/2011/profile-assets/PPs/2011-preakness-stakes-pps.pdf

Other Resources
http://www.preakness.com/
http://www.drf.com/news/

Post Horse name Trainer Jockey Opening odds (to 1)

1 Astrology Steve Asmussen Mike E. Smith 15-1

I like this colts chances. You get Smith/Asmussen which is always good. The horse is 6 for 6 in the money, on the dirt lifetime. Distance should not be an issue. I dont like only 2 races in 6+ months and has faced some cheaper horses versus others in here. With that said I will be using hime for second and in some trifecta’s and exacta’s as I should be getting more than the money line here.

2 Norman Asbjornson Chris Grove Julian Pimental 30-1

Could be a home town favorite with Maryland based trainer Chris Grove. Colt has been improving up to this race and Grove has had the Preakness in mind the whole year for the horse. The problem is I just don’t think he will have the talent needed to win here. No go for me.

3 King Congie Thomas Albertrani Robby Albarado 20-1

This is an interesting horse. Another one that raced better on synthetic rather than dirt. The 2 dirt starts were pretty miserable at Belmont. Ran a very close third in the last start at Keeneland, closing very late with stablemate Brilliant Speed who is skipping this race and opting for the Belmont Stakes. His works have been good since the Bluegrass and Robby Albarado might want to prove the connections of Animal Kingdom wrong after he was taken on the mount in the Derby a day before the race. I will throw in for a few trifecta’s and exacta’s, but probably not the winner here.

4 Flashpoint Wesley Ward Cornelio Velasquez 20-1

I am not sure how Cornhole can pull this one back and rate. He is pure speed, but I feel to much and will be fading in the end. The distance will the biggest issue for this Colt as 1 3/16 will be just to long. Leaving out.

5 Shackleford Dale Romans Jesus Castanon 12-1

Your Kentucky Derby leader until the last furlong. Lead the race on very slow fractions. Don’t think he will be able to do that here with other speed in the race. Will be out front early with others. Dirt and distance will not be an issue. I cant put my finger on why I don’t like him here or why I didn’t like him in the Derby. Might throw in a Superfecta.

6 Sway Away Jeff Bonde Garrett Gomez 15-1

This horse will take more money than it should on Saturday. he finished 4th behind ArchArchArch, Nehro and Dance City last time out in the Arkansas Derby. Will be taking the blinkers off in this start to help the colt focus and run off on the start. I don’t see enough in his previous starts to tell me he will win here.

7 Midnight Interlude Bob Baffert Martin Garcia 15-1

As I said in the Derby these West coasters simple stink moving over to the East coast dirt. He proved that finishing 16th in the Derby out of 19 horses. Feel this one will finish 12th out of 14 here. Throw out.

8 Dance City Todd Pletcher Ramon Dominguez 12-1

Really want to like this horse, but he is probably going to be in speed duel with Flashpoint and Shackleford. Hasn’t done anything wrong on the dirt which is more than you can say for others in here. Love Ramon/Pletcher combo, but is that enough to show in the money here?

9 Mucho Macho Man Kathy Ritvo Rajiv Maragh 6-1

Liked this horse in the Derby and did finish well, a close 3rd. I like him in this race as well. The horse is younger than others in here and every race adds to experience for him. You also have to love the inspirational story with trainer Kathy Ritvo getting a heart transplant. Using for 3rd.

10 Dialed In Nick Zito Julien Leparoux 9-2

My pick in the Derby and did well with a horrible trip. I am putting a line through the Derby race as it doesn’t tell me anything about what this horse can really do. He finished 9th, but was squeezed horribly in the start and never had a chance., Once he got some room was closing well. Should be in MUCH better shape here for the Preakness. Has done nothing wrong on the dirt going 3 for 5. My pick to win….again, but if the price is to short look elsewhere for value.

11 Animal Kingdom H. Graham Motion John R. Velazquez 2-1

Huge winner in the Kentucky Derby. Closed well into slow fractions and that might be the problem. Wont be slow on Saturday at all. My only question for him when i capped the Derby was if he could handle the dirt. He proved that could so he is a real monster on all three surfaces. I want to use him in a few trifecta’s, but don’t want to take such a short price to win.

12 Isn’t He Perfect Doodnauth Shivmangal Edgar Prado 30-1

Isn’t He Perfect is not that perfect. Finished 5th in the most recent race, the Jerome G2, is not what I like to see coming in here. His pedigree suggest he likes the distance, his recent results suggests he will finish last. Outta here.

13 Concealed Identity Edmond Gaudet Sheldon Russell 30-1

You always get one local yokal horse in the Preakness. The colt is 2 for 2 at Pimlico which can be a tricky track considering all other horses have NEVER raced on it. Could be a nice live long shot to use in your exotic plays.

14 Mr. Commons John Shirreffs Victor Espinoza 20-1

Colt had every reason to win in the Santa Anita Derby and didn’t, finishing 3rd. Mike Smith moves off this horse to the one isn’t giving me more reason to bet him here. Only starts on the synthetic and trying dirt for the first time? No thanks.

[Correction] SA switched back to dirt this year so he has raced on dirt.

Conclusion: With the shorter distance for Preakness (1 3/16 miles) versus the Derby (1 1/4 miles) I feel it is even more important to be on or near the lead. So I will take horses that will be up front.

Predictions:

1. Dialed In
2. Astrology
3. Mucho Macho Man
4. King Congie

Others to Consider:

5. Animal Kingdom
6. Concealed Identity
7. Dance City

Bets:

WP $20: Dialed In (#10) & Astrology (#1)
$10 Exacta Box: Dialed In (#10), Astrology (#1)
$2 Trifecta Box: Dialed In (#10), Astrology (#1), Mucho Macho Man (#9), King Congie (#3)
$1 Trifecta Box: Dialed In (#10), Astrology (#1), Mucho Macho Man (#9), King Congie (#3), Animal Kingdom (#11) Concealed Identity (#13)

507 Oklahoma City +6
507 Oklahoma City Over 200

505 MIAMI HEAT +3

742 ATLANTA HAWKS +4

737 BOSTON CELTICS +8
739 MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES +6.5